Section 2: Precedent in German Reunification for Ireland

Please see below  summary to Section 2 of the report “Precedent In German Unification for Ireland”. Section 2 in full is available at the link
Summary
Taoiseach Enda Kenny, speaking in Brussels on the 2nd of March 2017 said, “the Good
Friday Agreement contains the opportunity to put in these negotiations language that
has already been agreed in internationally binding agreement, that at some future time
were that position to arise, that if the people by consent were to form a united Ireland
that that could be a seamless transfer as happened in the case of East Germany and
West Germany when the Berlin Wall came down.”
At the McGill Summer School in July 2016 the Taoiseach stated in relation to the
upcoming Brexit negotiations that “the EU needs to prepare for a united Ireland”.
The Taoiseach also said at that time “The discussion and negotiations that take place
over the next period should take into account the possibility, however far out it might
be, that the clause in the Good Friday Agreement might be triggered.”
Therefore the precedent set out in the reunification of West and East Germany will
need to be included as part of the final Brexit agreement between the European Union
and the United Kingdom. In the event of the people of Ireland voting in favour of a
reunified Ireland as provided for in the Good Friday Agreement the Government needs
to ensure that the north of Ireland will be entitled to automatically become part of the
EU without the necessity for an application or accession process. This declaration by
the EU now will be important to avoid any doubt of EU status for the people of Northern
Ireland. Such doubt on EU membership was one of the factors that led to the loss of
the Scottish Independence Referendum.
Some of the other elements that should be included in the final agreement between
the EU and UK are included in this report. These include the treatment of trade, where
the example of the trading relationship between East and West Germany up until
reunification where the European Economic Community trade rules were not applied
needs to be followed. Such equal treatment of trade between the North and the South
of Ireland on a similar basis would assist the people of Northern Ireland and ensure the
stability of the economy of the whole island and thus the stability of the peace process.
Professor Markus Kotzur of Hamburg University’s submission to the Joint Committee
on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement is included in full in the appendix
of this section.
The Oireachtas Library and Research Service have provided information on EU Agreements
with their overseas territories and countries which has been included in the appendix.
2.1 RECOMMENDATIONS
1.The Irish Government must approach Commission President Jean-Claude
Juncker to declare that Irish reunification would be supported by the EU in the
event of the people of the Island of Ireland voting for it as provided for in the
Good Friday Agreement.
This declaration would be similar to that of Commission President Jacque Delors in
January 1990 on the issue of German Unification ‘East Germany is a special case’.
2.To avoid any uncertainties in the Irish case, it would be suitable to insist in the
course of the Brexit negotiations on an additional protocol expressly stating that
in case of an Irish Reunification Reunified Ireland will be considered the same
state as Ireland (state continuity) and that the EU Treaties will be without any
further amendment be applicable to the whole territory of the reunified country
.
3.Include in the final Agreement between the EU and the UK recognition of the
special status of the people of Northern Ireland and Northern Ireland’
s economic
relationship with the South. The precedent for both was set by the European
Community, when it recognised the special status of the citizens of East
Germany and made special provision for trade between the 2 Germanys.
4.Recognition by the EU in the final treaty between the EU and the UK that the
reunification of Ireland would be implicit by Art.79 of the ECSC Treaty, Art. 227(1)
of the EEC Treaty and Art.198 of the EURATOM Treaty leaving acquisition of
territory, and consequently all steps leading to it, with in the domain reserve of
the member statesv

 

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Section 3: Economic Modelling of Unification

Please see below summary to Section 3 of the report “Economic Modelling of Unification”. Section 3 in full is available at the link

Section 3 Economic Modelling of Unification

Summary

The research paper entitled “Brexit- a view from the Chambers in December 2016” by

the German-Irish Chamber of Industry and Commerce looked at the various analysis

done on the impact of Brexit on Ireland. This paper had a specific overview of the

impact on Northern Ireland and is available in full in the appendix to this section.

The German-Irish Chamber of Industry and Commerce has a unique view on the

impact of BREXIT on Ireland in light of the German reunification experience and view

that “The Irish peace process is lauded internationally as an exemplar to other regions

where there is conflict, however, Brexit could undermine the work of reconciliation and

destabilise the region.”

The German- Irish Chamber of Industry and Commerce also commented that “Brexit

and the challenges it poses cannot be allowed to undermine cross-border cooperation,

economic reconstruction and growing rapprochement after centuries of division on

the island of Ireland. In 1990, Ireland’s European presidency was central to agreeing

a common EU approach to the issue of German unification after the historic divisions

caused by the Cold War. In 2010, on the twentieth anniversary of the landmark Dublin

Summit, Germany’s then foreign minister Guido Westerwelle said that his country

would “never forget” how Irish diplomacy helped fast-track the way for the territory of

then East Germany to join the European Union as part of a unified Germany.A key

question for decision-makers in the EU today is can agreement be reached in a similar

spirit of diplomatic pragmatism to ensure that the unique circumstances of the island of

Ireland”.

It is widely recognised that the effect of BREXIT on the island of Ireland will be

profound and will require ‘diplomatic pragmatism’ by key EU decision makers as

outlined by the German-Irish Chamber of Industry and Commerce. The effect of

BREXIT will also be long term, one of the potential long term solutions would be the

fulfilment of the Constitutional obligation of a reunified Ireland.

The economic analysis of a unified Ireland as an option are few on the ground. There

was economic analysis of a united Ireland based on the economic modelling of

German unification carried out in 2015 entitled ‘Modelling Irish Unification’. This report

is available in full in the appendix to this section. However, it could now be considered

to be out of date due to BREXIT. In the analysis, one of the modelling scenarios in the

report estimates a boost in the all island GDP of 36.5 billion over 8 years with the North

benefitting significantly.

3.1 RECOMMENDATIONS

It would therefore be prudent to commission two reports

One based on a hard brexit with a hard border on a World Trade Organisation tariff

arrangement between Ireland, the EU and Britain and Northern Ireland.

The second report should be commissioned by the Government on the impact of

unification.

The current full Northern Ireland deficit should continue to be paid by HM Treasury

for a period of 30 years after a vote for unification.

 

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Section 4: Brexit and the Future of Ireland, Uniting Ireland its People in Peace and Prosperity

Please see below summary to Section 4 of the report “Brexit and the Future of Ireland, Uniting Ireland its People in Peace and “. Section 4 in full is available at the link

Section 4 Uniting Ireland and Its People in Peace and Prosperity

Summary

In light of Brexit and the challenges it poses for all sides in Ireland, the words of

Attorney General Rory Brady (2002-2007) in the foreword to now High Court Justice

Richard Humphreys book “Countdown to Unity” have never been more relevant.

“It is now for the political world to address when and how it will embrace those

challenges and induce that change”

“Unity may have been redefined by the new Articles 2 & 3 of the Constitution but it has

remained as a constitutional imperative (obligation). The guarantee that violence will

not be used to effect constitutional change is merely one commitment. In parallel to that

and of equal importance is the duty to give effect to the firm will of the Irish Nation ‘to

unite all the people who share the territory of the Island of Ireland”

‘Countdown to Unity’ identifies how the objective of Unity might be put in place

through legal and constitutional measures. This report will highlight briefly those legal,

legislative and constitutional measures that can be taken to strengthen the case for

unity as outlined by Humphreys.

Up until the Brexit vote on June 23rd 2016 the concept of a United Ireland as outlined

in Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution for many would seem a distant aspiration. Brexit

means that the best future for the citizens of Northern Ireland could well be remaining in

the European Union in a reunified Ireland. This option must be explored and examined.

The challenge now is to lay out how to achieve the constitutional obligation of a united

Ireland.

As John Bradley in his paper ‘Toward an All Island Economy’ presented at Queens

University Belfast in 2014 pointed out “the extreme importance of strategic economic

planning ………policy errors or policy neglect seldom goes unpunished”3 As this is

a truism of economic planning it is also critically important when it come to the issue

of planning for Unification. The UN human development index ranks the Republic of

Ireland as 6th in the world and ranks Northern Ireland at 44th.

However, aside from the New Ireland Forum, the Oireachtas Library and Research

service in Leinster House could not find any current or historic reports produced by

Brexit and the future of Ireland

2 | The Joint Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday agreement

a parliamentary committee on how the state should achieve its main aim of a united

Ireland.

As is pointed out in ‘Countdown to Unity’ published in 2009, 7 years prior to the Brexit

vote, Justice Humphreys stated there were a number of reasons why a debate and a

policy are appropriate at this time.

In this section we look at High Court Justice Humphrey’s reasons why, other than

Brexit, the issue of unification should be looked at.

Firstly the radically different context for the discussion on unity which exists now

compared to any time over the last nine decades since partition. Secondly the case

for unity now actively being made, support for a United Ireland by 79%*17A in the south

along with as Humphrey’s states “increasing over all vote for the two nationalist parties

in Northern Ireland”4 demonstrated by the Assembly results of the 3rd of March 2017.

Finally, as Justice Humphreys states himself “but in the end perhaps most compelling,

reason for an examination of the implications of unity is the fact that the constitution

itself, in article 3, inserted pursuant to the Good Friday Agreement, refers to unity as

the ‘firm will of the Irish Nation’”.5

Specially commissioned research carried out by the Oireachtas Library and Research

Service for this report outlines the positions of all the main political parties on the

Island, north and south, on the issue of unification.It is republished within this section

in full. Professor Sean D. McGraw of Notre Dame University in his submission for

the Joint Committees Report outlines his research of Irish Parliamentarians Attitudes

Towards a united Ireland.

Attorney General Brady states in the Foreword to High Court Justice Humphreys Book

‘Countdown to Unity’ that “While Consent is a fundamental characteristic of change, Dr

Humphreys makes it plain that it cannot be an excuse for political inertia”6. High Court

Justice Humphreys discusses the issue of political status-quoism due to the concern

that loyalist paramilitaries could be provoked and attempt to subvert the pursuit of

the aim of the Irish people to peacefully achieve a united Ireland as provided for in

the Good Friday Agreement. Senator Daly as rapporteur of this report requested

White House, National Security Council, Senior Policy advisor on counter terrorism

Brexit and the future of Ireland

The Joint Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday agreement | 3

in President Obama’s administration and the first US diplomat focused on countering

violent extremism policy at the State Department Michael R. Ortiz to give a submission

on how the threat of future loyalist paramilitary violence attempting to subvert a

referendum and unification could be addressed. Anne Cadwallader of the Pat Finuance

Center and author of Lethal Allies: British Collusion in Ireland outlines the collusion

of the past between the British Security forces and loyalist paramilitaries, she makes

recommendations how such collusion could be prevented in the future as Ireland

pursues unification.

Kevin Meagher an advisor to the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Shaun

Woodward 2007-09,outlines in a submission to the Committee his view on the position

that the British Government should adopt towards the future of Northern Ireland.

Expert in German unification, Professor Christian Tomuschat from Berlin University

made a submission to the Committee report. The United Nations report on the on-going

progress in Cyprus reunification is also published in full. Professor Marcus Noland,

former senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers in the Executive Office of

the President of the United States, is also a specialist on the issue of Korean unification

and outlines some of the lessons for Ireland.

High Court Justice Humphrey in his book ‘Countdown to Unity’ states that “there is

no one single pathway to unity – rather there are alternative, but perhaps related

roadmaps to reunification”7

In this section the options by Justice Humphreys are outlined.These include Unitary

State, Federal/Confederal, United Ireland with continuation of Northern Assembly under

the Good Friday Agreement, Joint Authority, Joint Sovereignty, Independent Northern

Ireland, Repartition, and Repatriation.

‘Irish Man of the 20th Century’ T K Whittaker stated in November 1968 in a ‘Note on

North-South Border Policy’ the long term nature of achieving a United Ireland,

Brexit and the future of Ireland

4 | The Joint Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday agreement

‘We were, therefore, left with only one choice, a policy of seeking unity in

Ireland between Irishmen. Of its nature this is a long-term policy, requiring

patience, understanding and forbearance and resolute resistance to

emotionalism and opportunism. It is not the less patriotic for that’

T K Whittaker

‘Note on North-South Border Policy’

T. K. Whittaker ‘s transcript memorandum titled “A note on North South Border

Policy” November 1968 is in the appendix in full

4.1 RECOMMENDATION:

The establishment of a New Ireland Forum 2 is recommended to set a pathway to

achieve the peaceful reunification of Ireland.

Establish an international task force with experts in counter terrorism so that

the insights of Michael Ortiz, White House, National Security Council, Senior

Policy advisor on counter terrorism in Presidents Obama administration could be

examined, a plan devised and implemented.

 

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Section 5: Good Friday Agreement

Please see below summary to Section 5 of the report “Good Friday Agreement” Section 5 in full is available at the link

Section 5 Good Friday Agreement

Summary

In this section of the Report for the Joint Committee on the Implementation of the Good

Friday Agreement we outline the infrastructure of the Good Friday Agreement. The

agreement is included in full in the appendix of this section.

Strand I: The Assembly and Executive with in Northern Ireland

Strand II: The North South Ministerial Council

Strand III: The British Irish Council

The report looks at some of the provisions of the Agreement that have still to be

implemented such as, Bill of Rights, Civic Forum, North South Consultative Forum and

the Irish Language Act. We highlight that even with Ireland’s membership since 2011 of

the International Court of Justice, as Northern Ireland is not covered by the ICJ there

are limited avenues to address breaches of the Good Friday Agreement by the British

government or any signatory. This flaw in the Agreement needs to be addressed.

High Court Justice Humphrey’s book ‘Countdown to Unity’ looked at developing and

expanding the architecture and infrastructure of the Good Friday Agreement and his

analysis is included here. Justice Humphreys looks at the idea of an East – West

Parliamentary Body and the Constitutionality or other wise of it. The concept and again

the constitutionality of judicial branch of government to resolve disputes of North-South

& East-West Parliamentary Bodies is explored. Justice Humphreys also analyses

the opportunity of a North-South Implementation Body and the possible gains from

East-West Administrative Bodies. An All Island Civic forum to assist the North South

structure is also explored. Finally,in this section High Court Justice Humphreys looks at

the continuation of the infrastructure of the Good Friday Agreement ‘into the long term’

and after a referendum for a united Ireland.

5.1 RECOMMENDATION

That Northern Ireland is included in the jurisdiction of the International Court of

Justice to resolve disputes arising from the Good Friday Agreement

 

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Section 6 : Referendum as provided for in the Good Friday Agreement

Please see below summary to Section 6 of the report “Referendum as provided for in the Good Friday Agreement” Section 6 in full is available at the link

Section 6 Referendum as Provided for under the Good Friday Agreement

High Court Justice Humphreys in his book ‘Countdown to Unity’ explains how the

‘constitutional imperative’, as outlined by Attorney General Brady (2002-2007), of

articles 2 and 3 of the constitution can be achieved by the referendum provided for in

Annex A Schedule 1 of the constitutional issues of the Good Friday Agreement.

Attorney General Brady (2002-07) goes on to explain the elements of the Good Friday

Agreement and in accepting the Realpolitik of a divided island.

“A fundamental principal of the Good Friday Agreement is that it is a settlement

based on the exercise of the right to self-determination by the people of the island

of Ireland. The requirement that the right was to be exercised, concurrently, on

both parts of the island by way of a separate referendum in each jurisdiction was

recognition of the realpolitik of a divided island. The reconciliation of the tension

between the right to self-determination and the reality of political life on the island of

Ireland is to be found in the policy of consent.”1

Attorney General Brady

In this section we look at Justice Humphreys detailed analysis of the issue of consent,

of ‘dual consent’ and the important difference between ‘a’ majority and ‘the’ majority

as referred to over the decades by various British Governments. The challenges of a

referendum being concurrent in the North & South and how that could and should be

interpreted is considered in great detail by Justice Humphreys. The options open to the

Irish Government in the event that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland refuses

to hold a referendum or hold a ‘testing the water’ referendum are explored by Justice

Humphreys. The triggering of a referendum and its likelihood of being subject to a

challenge by way of a referendum petition by unionists is also discussed. The issues

surrounding voter fraud in a referendum are outlined. In the event of the referendum

being passed the necessity of its ratification by the Irish and British Governments are

explained.

 

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