Research report with Senior economist at the German desk of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during German reunification showing Northern Ireland has near balance budget in unification scenario

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In July 2018 Senator Daly and Gunther Thumann compiled research for the Good Friday Agreement Implementation Committee on the true income and expenditure of Northern Ireland in a reunification situation. The information analysed by Daly & Thumann shows that, in fact, the current reported deficit for the Northern Ireland budget could come close to a balanced budget in a re-unification scenario.

Gunther Thumann worked as a senior economist at the German desk of the International Monetary Fund IMF at the time of German reunification.

– Thumann argues in his research that pensions would initially be the responsibility of the British Government as the pension liability was accrued while Northern Ireland was part of the United Kingdom.

– Non-identifiable expenditure of £2.9billion includes Northern Ireland’s share of UK Defence Expenditure, UK Debt Interest, International service, UK contribution to the EU, British Royal family etc. These would not be a liability of a new agreed Ireland.

– Thumann in his research explains that not all the accounting adjustments figure attribute by Westminster to Northern Ireland of £1.1billion would be applicable in a reunification scenario either.

– Also the convergence of the public service numbers between the north and the south would bring a saving of £1.7billion per annum in the current budget expenditure of Northern Ireland.

Taking the above adjustments and savings into account the cumulative figure is £8.5 billion. With the reported deficit for Northern Ireland is at £9.2 billion therefore the current income and expenditure figure for Northern Ireland Thumann & Daly concludes comes near a balanced budget in a reunification scenario. This is of course, before taking into account the likely potential for growth in Northern Ireland following unification as happened in East Germany following its reunification.

 

This proposal was based on one of the key recommendations of the first report in the history of the Dail or Senate compiled by Senator Mark Daly called ‘Brexit & the Future of Ireland Uniting Ireland & its People in Peace & Prosperity’ which was adopted unanimously by the committee.

 

Gunther Thumann worked as a senior economist at the German desk of the International Monetary Fund IMF at the time of German reunification.

Senator Mark Daly and Gunther Thumann have compile research for the Good Friday Agreement Implementation Committee on the true income and expenditure of Northern Ireland in a reunification situation. The information analysed by Daly & Thumann shows that, in fact, the current reported deficit for the Northern Ireland budget could come close to a balanced budget in a re-unification scenario.

The Report is Available in Full research-on-northern-ireland-income-and-expenditure (1)

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